Oscar Predictions 2023

 

Oscar night quickly approaches, taking place this Sunday, March 12. The ceremony will be hosted for the third time by the affable Jimmy Kimmel. Following a few years where the Best Picture went to streamers (CODA), or to films that were deserving, but off the beaten track for the Academy (Parasite, Nomadland), there appears to have been some course correction to include some blockbusters in the hunt. Perhaps some of these crowd-pleasing nominees/winners will draw some attention back to the show. Apart from ratings bumps in 2019 and 2022, the Oscar ceremony has seen declining television ratings for the last decade. Nomination leader Everything Everywhere All at Once seems primed for some big wins, and there are some great human interest stories among this year’s nominees. It’s a big night for the stars and the studios, and for the movie fans who still enjoy watching the ceremony. So let’s dig into some predictions. 

Best Picture

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

Triangle of Sadness

Women Talking

In a year when some of the best Best Picture nominees went unfortunately underseen in theaters (Banshees, Tar, The Fabelmans), others were box-office powerhouses (Avatar: The Way of Water, Top Gun: Maverick, Elvis). Only one streaming-premiere film was nominated this year. The momentum certainly seems to be behind surprise hit Everything Everywhere All at Once, but this category does throw the occasional curveball.

Michael Powell’s Prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Noah Damron’s Prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Robert Butler’s Prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Everything Everywhere All At Once Movie Poster (24x36) - Hsu, Slate, Yeoh v4 | eBay

Best Director

Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

Todd Field, TÁR

Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

An interesting crop of directors nominated this year, though surprisingly none of the directors of the big budget Best Picture nominees slipped in here. It will be interesting to see if the EEAAO train keeps rolling here, or if, like I think might happen, the Academy gives it to a long-time favorite who made his most personal film this year.

Michael’s Prediction: Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans 

Noah’s Prediction: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Robert’s Prediction: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett, TÁR

Ana de Armas, Blonde

Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie

Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

A lot of the press this awards season went to the “grassroots” campaign on social media that led to Andrea Riseborough’s nomination. It’s a good performance in a small film that likely wouldn’t have otherwise seen this level of attention. But this race is down to the battle between two titans, Yeoh and Blanchett. The precursor awards have split between them, but I think the EEAAO momentum will carry Yeoh to victory.

Michael’s Prediction: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Noah’s Prediction: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Robert’s Prediction: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Actor

Austin Butler, Elvis

Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Paul Mescal, Aftersun

Bill Nighy, Living

An interesting race this year with a mix of rookies and veterans, all of whom are first-time Oscar nominees. First things first, if my vote counted, Bill Nighy would be taking that statue home on Sunday. But that’s the longest of long-shots. The Brendan Fraser comeback narrative fueled early Oscar talk, though Austin Butler has split enough of the precursors with Fraser to make this a close call. 

Michael’s Prediction: Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Noah’s Prediction: Austin Butler, Elvis

Robert’s Prediction: Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Hong Chau, The Whale

Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Both Supporting categories this year feature two performers from the same film. Traditional thinking is that this splits the vote and lessens the likelihood of them winning, though Jamie Lee Curtis has seen some recent success in the other award shows. And Angela Bassett has had a great career coupled with recent momentum, so this could be the year that the Marvel machine picks up an acting Oscar. But I’m going with my heart and the BAFTAs here to predict a win for one of my favorite performances of last year

Michael’s Prediction: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin 

Noah’s Prediction: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin 

Robert’s Prediction: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway

Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans

Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

I love Banshees, and I’d be happy to see either nominated actor take this award home. And Bryan Tyree Henry was also very impressive in a small, but very good film. I personally think the wrong Fabelmans actor was nominated here (Paul Dano), though I recognize Hirsch had the showier, crowd-pleasing part, which tends to draw supporting nominations. But this category is the lock of the night. Ke Huy Quan is unstoppable. And even though I don’t love the film, his performance was the aspect I wanted to see recognized as soon as I left the theater. I’m glad it’s going to happen for him.

Michael’s Prediction: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Noah’s Prediction: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Robert’s Prediction: Ke Huy Quan,Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Original Screenplay 

Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, The Fabelmans

Todd Field, TÁR

Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

Screenplay is often where the most offbeat, “cool” winners come from. I think my beloved Banshees will pick up a win.

Michael’s Prediction: The Banshees of Inisherin

Noah’s Prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Robert’s Predictions: The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Adapted Screenplay

Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, and Ian Stokell, All Quiet on the Western Front

Rian Johnson, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Kazuo Ishiguro, Living

Screenplay by Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, and Christopher McQuarrie, story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks, Top Gun: Maverick

Sarah Polley, Women Talking

While it failed to nominate any of the actresses from Women Talking, the Academy liked the film enough to give it a Best Picture nod. It won’t win there, but I think it will win for Sarah Polley’s script, adapted from Miriam Toews’s novel.

Michael’s Prediction: Women Talking

Noah’s Prediction: Women Talking

Robert’s Prediction: Women Talking

Best International Feature

All Quiet on the Western Front

Argentina, 1985

Close

EO

The Quiet Girl

Best International Feature is a strange category with archaic rules for what gets nominated. But there was a really solid shortlist this year, and unfortunately several of the best films from that list missed the final cut. I don’t understand the Academy’s love for All Quiet on the Western Front, with its nine nominations, but it’s almost certainly going to win this one.

Michael’s Prediction: All Quiet on the Western Front

Noah’s Prediction: All Quiet on the Western Front

Robert’s Prediction: All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Animated Feature

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Marcel the Shell With Shoes On

Puss In Boots: The Last Wish

The Sea Beast

Turning Red

There was a wealth of interesting animation released last year, and the Academy did a pretty solid job with the nominations. That said, give del Toro all of the Oscars forever.

Michael’s Prediction: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Noah’s Prediction: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Robert’s Prediction: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Best Documentary Feature

All That Breathes

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Fire of Love

A House Made of Splinters

Navalny

Michael’s Prediction: All That Breathes

Noah’s Prediction: Navalny

Robert’s Prediction: Navalny

Best Film Editing

Mikkel E.G. Nielsen, The Banshees of Inisherin

Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond, Elvis

Paul Rogers, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Monika Willi, TÁR

Eddie Hamilton, Top Gun: Maverick

Michael’s Prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Noah’s Prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Robert’s Prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Cinematography

James Friend, All Quiet on the Western Front

Darius Khondji, Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths

Mandy Walker, Elvis

Roger Deakins, Empire of Light

Florian Hoffmeister, TÁR

Michael’s Prediction: All Quiet on the Western Front

Noah’s Prediction: Elvis

Robert’s Prediction: All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Costume Design

Mary Zophres, Babylon

Ruth E. Carter, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Catherine Martin, Elvis

Shirley Kurata, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Jenny Beavan, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Michael’s Prediction: Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Noah’s Prediction: Elvis

Robert’s Prediction: Babylon

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová, All Quiet on the Western Front

Naomi Donne, Mike Marino, and Mike Fontaine, The Batman

Camille Friend and Joel Harlow, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Mark Coulier, Jason Baird, and Aldo Signoretti, Elvis

Adrien Morot, Judy Chin, and Anne Marie Bradley, The Whale

Michael’s Prediction: Elvis

Noah’s Prediction: Elvis

Robert’s Prediction: Elvis

Best Production Design

Christian M. Goldbeck and Ernestine Hipper, All Quiet on the Western Front

Dylan Cole, Ben Procter, and Vanessa Cole, Avatar: The Way of Water

Florencia Martin and Anthony Carlino, Babylon

Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy, and Bev Dunn, Elvis

Rick Carter and Karen O’Hara, The Fabelmans

Michael’s Prediction: Babylon

Noah’s Prediction: Babylon

Robert’s Prediction: Babylon

Best Original Song

“Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman, music and lyrics by Dianne Warren

“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick, music and lyrics by Lady Gaga and BloodPop

“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, music and lyrics by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler, and Ludwig Goransson

“Naatu Naatu” from RRR, music by M.M. Keeravaani, lyrics by Chandrabose

“This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once, music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne, and Mitski, lyrics by Ryan Lott

Stepping back in to say that there is no Oscars moment I’m looking forward to more this year than seeing how they do the live performance for “Naatu Naatu”. I know there are a lot of heavy hitters nominated in this category this year, but nothing would be better than an RRR win.

Michael’s Prediction: RRR

Noah’s Prediction: RRR

Robert’s Prediction: RRR

Best Original Score

Volker Bertelmann, All Quiet on the Western Front

Justin Hurwitz, Babylon

Carter Burwell, The Banshees of Inisherin

Son Lux, Everything Everywhere All at Once

John Williams, The Fabelmans

Michael’s Prediction: Babylon

Noah’s Prediction: Babylon

Robert’s Prediction: Babylon

Best Sound

Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel, and Stefan Korte, All Quiet on the Western Front

Julian Howarth, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, and Michael Hedges, Avatar: The Way of Water

Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray, and Andy Nelson, The Batman

David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson, and Michael Keller, Elvis

Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon, and Mark Taylor, Top Gun: Maverick

Michael’s Prediction: Top Gun: Maverick

Noah’s Prediction: Top Gun: Maverick

Robert’s Prediction: Top Gun: Maverick

Best Visual Effects

Frank Petzold, Viktor Müller, Markus Frank, and Kamil Jafar, All Quiet on the Western Front

Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, and Daniel Barrett, Avatar: The Way of Water

Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands, and Dominic Tuohy, The Batman

Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White, and Dan Sudick, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson, and Scott R. Fisher, Top Gun: Maverick

Michael’s Prediction: Avatar: The Way of Water

Noah’s Prediction: Avatar: The Way of Water

Robert’s Prediction: Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Animated Short Film

The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse

The Flying Sailor

Ice Merchants

My Year of Dicks

An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake, and I Think I Believe It

Michael’s Prediction: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse

Noah’s Prediction: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse

Robert’s Prediction: My Year of Dicks

Best Live-Action Short Film

An Irish Goodbye

Ivalu

Le Pupille

Night Ride

The Red Suitcase

Michael’s Prediction: Le Pupille

Noah’s Prediction: Le Pupille

Robert’s Prediction: Le Pupille

Best Documentary Short Film

The Elephant Whisperers

Haulout

How Do You Measure a Year?

The Martha Mitchell Effect

Stranger at the Gate

Michael’s Prediction: Stranger at the Gate

Noah’s Prediction: The Elephant Whisperers

Robert’s Prediction: The Elephant Whisperers